The Bonfire of the Vanities
When diplomacy stalls, markets are left to trade time — and time is the one thing the system doesn’t have.
Category: ‘Big Picture’ Regional Thoughts
You Can’t Have Your Creditor and Eat Him Too
Japan’s forced shift to WTI is not just a refining story — it’s a currency and bond market problem in motion.
Light Ends & Being Left Behind
An asymmetry is forming across the barrel — and not everyone is positioned to handle it.
From Fragile to Failed: When Energy Shortages Become State Risk
Energy dependency is becoming a fault line — and for some countries, the shift from fragile to failed may happen faster than expected.
Advanced vs Emerging
Energy stress is now visible across the global system — but advanced economies and emerging markets are responding in very different ways.
Crude & the Chaos
In volatile markets, the advantage often lies not in reserves — but in refining capacity and logistical optionality.
You Never Want a Serious Crisis to Go to Waste
When synthetic markets dominate — until logistics suddenly matter again.
Fuel Oil’s Structural Twin
If you wanted to describe the unofficial architecture of the fuel oil market, you’d struggle to do better than Bitcoin.
“Without proper presentation, the best sleight of hand is little more than a feat of juggling.”
Why so many market signals point sideways — and why fuel oil flows may be telling a different story.
The Goldilocks Metaphor
In a market starved of diesel, the hunt for “just right” crude has never been more revealing.