The ban and its fallout

Dar Blend hasn’t been allowed to be sold into the UAE since May 2025, following accusations by the Sudanese Armed Forces that Abu Dhabi was supporting the opposition Rapid Support Forces. What might have seemed like a niche diplomatic dispute has upended part of the fuel oil complex. The loss of this heavy sweet barrel has created a structural short in LSFO across the Arabian Gulf — and the market shows little sign of normalising.

The Fujairah picture

Below are the confirmed and potential arrivals basis Fujairah delivery, illustrating how replacement flows are taking shape:

Winners and substitutes

KPC’s Mina Al Zour is absorbing much of the shortfall, its proximity giving it a natural advantage. Aramco is also well-positioned, able to trade flat price and leverage existing LSFO capacity. Lukoil has resumed from Tuapse, while Vitol has drawn down 140kt from Malaysian storage to cover Fujairah demand. Dangote’s refinery is starting to surprise — reportedly producing a cleaner spec, with Chevron lifting a Dangote barrel to the U.S. West Coast, a route typically reserved for Skikda 0.1%.

Price parity and manipulation

There’s something unusual in the pricing. The 0.5% LSFO benchmark has been moving in near lockstep between Fujairah and Singapore. Parity itself isn’t rare — but the identical weekly adjustments are.

The correlation hints at quiet accumulation — possibly a bull play building under the surface. Open interest data isn’t a reliable signal anymore, but at nine million tons, it’s worth watching.

The Bigger Picture

The Dar Blend ban has set off a chain reaction that reshapes the LSFO supply matrix in the Gulf. The gap it leaves is being filled by a patchwork of replacements — West African, Latin American, Russian, and even Dangote barrels — but none yet replicate its balance. Parity pricing between Fujairah and Singapore suggests deeper coordination or speculative buildup. Either way, the market feels tighter, more reactive, and increasingly prone to manipulation.