'Big Picture' Regional Thoughts

From Fujairah to Malaysia: Diverging Stories in the Indian Ocean

Dar Blend’s quiet re-entry meets Venezuelan SRFO’s long route east — two ends of the same market tension.

Two ends, two markets

At either end of the Indian Ocean, the stories could hardly be more different. On one side, traders are finding ways to sneak Dar Blend back into the UAE — one confirmed, another reportedly being re-documented. On the other, the 3.5% market is inflating on paper as China calls time on SRFO imports for the year, with no quota beyond the end of November.

Venezuela’s shadow barrels

The hardest flows to pin down right now are Venezuelan SRFO movements, potentially making their way into Malaysia. Several Aframax-sized cargoes, nominally listed as Merey16, may in fact be carrying fuel oil. These are worth watching closely.

ARRIVALVESSELQUANTITYLOADEDLOAD PORTRATECHARTERER
ANCHORAMBER 6100,000MT03-05/07VENEZUELARNRUNKNOWN
ANCHORADONIA100,000MT27-29/08TRINIDAD STSRNRUNKNOWN
ANCHORSIRIUS 1100,000MT27-29/08TRINIDAD STSRNRUNKNOWN
19 OCTFOREVER100,000MT27-29/08BRAZIL STSRNRUNKNOWN
25 OCTHALO 6100,000MT06-08/09VENEZUELARNRUNKNOWN
10 NOVDEYNA100,000MT18-20/09VENEZUELARNRUNKNOWN
21 NOVTURACO100,000MT08-10/10TRINIDAD STSRNRUNKNOWN
23 NOVELIAK100,000MT06-08/10COLOMBIA STSRNRUNKNOWN

Venezuela typically pushes around four 90kt SRFO cargoes per month, so it’s plausible these have been sold off-balance sheet, bypassing Valero and the U.S. Gulf Coast entirely.

A reminder from history

The last notably successful MOC run on Venezuelan-origin fuel came as GL 44 was winding down — a reminder that these barrels have form when it comes to moving under the radar.

The Bigger Picture

At one end of the Indian Ocean, the question is how to disguise supply; at the other, how to find a home for it. Both stories highlight the same tension: sanctioned or restricted barrels never disappear — they just change shape, name, or destination.