14th July 2025 brought the latest shockwave from Washington: Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on any country still trading with Russia after 2nd September, unless a ceasefire in Ukraine was reached.

For Beijing, the blow is softened. China secured a 90-day tariff truce effective through 10th November 2025. But for India, there’s no such safety net — and refiners have been quietly adjusting their crude slate to reflect the risk.

Yet the flows keep coming. A look at fixtures through late July and August shows a steady stream of Urals, Varandey, ESPO, and Sokol barrels heading for India’s west coast. From Cochin to Jamnagar, Reliance to Nayara, Russian grades remain firmly anchored in the country’s energy mix.

The role of Coral Energy (2Rivers)

One name that continues to surface is 2Rivers (aka Coral Energy). UK and EU sanctions have sidelined parts of their fleet and trading activity, but not stopped them altogether. Instead, they’ve been tasked with “babysitting” the bulk of Russia’s flows into India — particularly those tied to Nayara’s Vadinar refinery, where Rosneft holds a 49.13% stake.

The result: while some players rebrand or sit out, Coral is left carrying a heavy load, bridging the gap between Moscow’s ambitions and India’s energy needs.

The Bigger Picture

On paper, Trump’s threat should be a deterrent. In practice, India is still receiving multiple million-barrel parcels of Russian crude, with refiners leaning on intermediaries and shadow supply chains to keep barrels flowing.

For Washington, this creates a dilemma: secondary tariffs are a blunt instrument that risk collateral damage to a critical partner. For Moscow, the message is clearer — sanctions or not, Russian barrels remain sticky in the global system.

India, meanwhile, sits at the intersection: too pragmatic to walk away from discounted supply, too exposed not to hedge against U.S. retaliation.

In short, the flows continue, the risks mount — and the tanker lists tell their own story.