Understand what the Horizon Report is telling you—and why it matters. This guide explains every chart, KPI, signal and calculation used throughout Maven Knowledge’s Fuel Oil+ Horizon Report, helping readers turn data into actionable market insight.
The Fuel Oil+ Horizon Report is Maven Knowledge’s weekly strategic intelligence publication, designed to provide a forward-looking view of global fuel oil, feedstock, and blendable crude movements.
Unlike traditional vessel tracking or AIS-derived datasets, the Horizon Report focuses on projected arrivals, changing trade flows, trader activity, and emerging supply signals across the world’s most important fuel oil markets.
Its purpose is simple:
To help market participants understand where supply is building, tightening, or changing direction before those shifts become visible in the physical market.
Each weekly report combines Maven Knowledge’s human-validated intelligence with our global fuel oil flow database to provide a concise but comprehensive overview of:
The report is designed to help traders, analysts, brokers, charterers, risk teams, and commercial decision-makers move beyond raw data and quickly identify the developments that matter most.
The report is organised into three primary sections:
Each section answers a different question.
| Section | Primary Question |
|---|---|
| Global Market Signals | What is happening globally? |
| Global Imports & Exports | Where is supply moving? |
| Regional Analysis | What is happening within each key market? |
The Horizon Report compares the current report against the previous weekly publication.
Unless otherwise stated:
The Global Market Signals page provides a high-level summary of current market conditions and highlights the most important developments within the reporting week.
The headline observations at the top of the page are generated from the most significant week-on-week changes identified within the data.
Examples include:
These headlines are intended to draw immediate attention to the most important developments affecting the market.
The Global Totals section provides three key indicators.
| Metric | What It Measures | Calculation | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Imports | Total projected imports across all covered destination regions. | Sum of all qualifying cargo volumes after report filters have been applied. | Provides a broad measure of overall market supply and allows quick comparison against previous weeks. |
| 10-Day Forward Volume | Expected arrivals over the next ten calendar days. | Sum of all qualifying cargoes with ETA dates between the report date and report date + 9 days (inclusive). | Provides an early indication of near-term supply pressure before arrivals occur. Rising volumes typically indicate increasing supply, while falling volumes may signal tightening market conditions. |
| Anchored Volume | Cargo volume currently identified as anchored. | Sum of all cargoes where vessel status contains ANCHOR. | Can indicate floating storage, congestion, delayed discharge activity, or increased market optionality. |
This section highlights the five largest increases in trade flows between regions.
Example:
Black Sea → Red Sea
+300 KT
This means projected volume moving from the Black Sea into the Red Sea increased by 300 KT compared with the previous report snapshot.
Only changes greater than 50 KT are included. Changes are measured against the previous report snapshot.
This section highlights the five largest reductions in trade flows between regions.
These movements often provide an early indication of changing supply patterns before they become visible in regional inventory figures.
Each region receives two directional indicators.
Volume Direction
Measures week-on-week change in total imports.
| Signal | Threshold |
|---|---|
| Increasing | Greater than +3% |
| Stable | Between -3% and +3% |
| Decreasing | Less than -3% |
Tightness Indicator
Measures change in 10-day forward volume.
| Signal | Threshold |
|---|---|
| Loosening | Greater than +5% |
| Stable | Between -5% and +5% |
| Tightening | Less than -5% |
This indicator focuses on future arrivals rather than current inventory.
Shows the percentage of volume controlled by the five largest traders globally.
Calculation:
Top 5 Trader Volume ÷ Total Named Trader Volume
The chart displays:
A rising concentration level can indicate increasing market influence from a small number of participants.
The Global Imports page provides a destination-focused view of global supply.
Each destination region displays:
This allows readers to quickly identify where supply is increasing or decreasing.
The Global Exports page mirrors the imports page but focuses on loading regions rather than destination regions.
Rather than asking:
“Where are barrels arriving?”
It asks:
“Where are barrels coming from?”
This helps identify shifts in export availability and regional supply sources.
The export table uses the same product categories and week-on-week comparison methodology as the imports page.
Each covered region contains a dedicated market section designed to provide a complete view of local market conditions.
The report currently covers:
Each regional section consists of two pages.
The first page provides a regional overview and product breakdown.
The second page provides a detailed market summary.
The opening regional page displays:
This allows readers to quickly understand which products are driving regional supply changes.
The Regional Summary page begins with four key observations highlighting the most significant developments within the region.
Examples may include:
These observations are generated from the largest changes identified within the underlying data.
Displays projected arrivals by week.
Current snapshot volumes are displayed using solid bars.
Previous snapshot volumes are displayed using lighter shaded bars.
This visual comparison helps identify whether future supply is building or declining.
Shows expected arrivals during the next ten days.
Calculation:
All qualifying cargoes with ETAs falling between the report date and report date plus nine days.
This is often the most useful leading indicator within the report because it focuses on immediate incoming supply.
For example, if:
This would typically indicate additional supply is expected to enter the region without evidence of congestion.
Tracks anchored inventory levels over time.
Calculation:
Sum of all cargoes with anchored status within the region.
Readers typically use this chart to monitor:
Displays the dominant trading participants within the region.
The table shows:
The accompanying chart illustrates overall concentration levels within the regional market.
Volumes are split into seven Fuel Oil+ categories.
| Product Group | Description |
|---|---|
| HSFO | High Sulphur Fuel Oil |
| LSFO | 0.5% Low Sulphur Fuel Oil Spec, and Low Sulphur Residue that will contribute to this pool |
| SRFO/A.RES | Straight Run Fuel Oil / Atmospheric Residue |
| VGO | Vacuum Gas Oil |
| HSWEET | Blendable crude and sweet feedstocks |
| CUTTER | Cutter stocks and blending components |
| OTHER | Unclassified products |
The table below summarises the primary metrics used throughout the Horizon Report and the methodology behind each calculation.
| Metric | Methodology |
|---|---|
| Total Imports | Sum of all qualifying cargo volumes imported into covered destination regions after report filters have been applied. |
| Total Exports | Sum of all qualifying cargo volumes exported from covered loading regions after report filters have been applied. |
| 10-Day Forward Volume | Sum of all qualifying cargoes with ETAs between the report date and report date + 9 days (inclusive). |
| Anchored Volume | Sum of all qualifying cargo volumes where vessel status contains ANCHOR. |
| Trader Concentration | Top 5 trader volume divided by total named trader volume, expressed as a percentage. |
| Flow Changes | Week-on-week change in volume between a loading region and destination region pair. |
| Product Volumes | Sum of qualifying cargo volumes grouped by Fuel Oil+ product category. |
| Weekly Projected Imports | Sum of expected arrivals grouped by calendar week based on projected ETA. |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Increasing | A region where total imports have increased by more than 3% compared with the previous report. |
| Decreasing | A region where total imports have fallen by more than 3% compared with the previous report. |
| Stable | A region where total imports have changed by less than 3% in either direction. |
| Loosening | A region where 10-Day Forward Volume has increased by more than 5% compared with the previous report. |
| Tightening | A region where 10-Day Forward Volume has decreased by more than 5% compared with the previous report. |
| Anchored | Cargoes currently identified as anchored within a region. |
| Trader Concentration | The percentage of total named trader volume controlled by the five largest traders. |
| Flow | A movement of cargo from a loading region to a destination region. Example: Black Sea → Red Sea. |
| Rule | Description |
|---|---|
| Volume Units | All volumes displayed in kilotonnes (KT), rounded to the nearest whole KT. |
| Percentage Change | Current report compared with the previous report snapshot. |
| NEW | Displayed when previous volume = 0 and current volume > 0. |
| Blank Cells | Used where zero suppression rules apply. |
To ensure consistency and avoid distorted signals, the report excludes cargoes identified as:
These exclusions are applied before all regional, global, flow and trader calculations are performed.
As a result, all metrics represent active and commercially relevant market activity.
