For Every Action, There Is an Equal and Opposite Reaction.

Markets are adjusting in real time.

What starts as a constraint in one region quickly becomes a rebalancing act elsewhere — flows reroute, pricing dislocates, and supply chains adapt.

The data below shows exactly how those reactions are playing out across the HSFO and LSFO landscape.

Bangladesh

Supply is consistently drawn from Singapore inventory.

Ordinarily difficult to compete with Vitol, but without their Arabian Gulf position, competition becomes more balanced.

Bangladesh remains one of the few receivers still requiring 180cst viscosity, introducing a blending component.

• Supply source: Singapore
• Competitive landscape: more open without Gulf positioning
• Product requirement: 180cst blending

Ceylon (Sri Lanka)

Pricing rarely works from the Gulf, leaving Singapore as the dominant supply source, largely controlled by Sinopec due to its local presence.

Crude flows show Vitol moving Murban successfully, while CPC has yet to feature despite workable arbitrage.

Bangladesh mirrors this light sour preference dynamic.

• Supply source: Singapore dominant
• Market control: Sinopec
• Crude dynamic: Murban active, CPC absent

Kenya

Supply has shifted from the Gulf to Singapore, creating additional draw on Singapore inventories.

ULSD from Reliance is landing, and given the Venezuelan crude being processed, Reliance may soon be long HSFO.

Their increasing purchases of Vizag LSFO suggest difficulty in achieving low sulphur output from Merey16-derived HSFO.

• Supply shift: Gulf → Singapore
• Product flow: ULSD from Reliance
• Refining signal: difficulty achieving low sulphur

Madagascar

Supply is now firmly drawn from Singapore, reinforcing negative pressure on the MOPS pool.

Galana remains the dominant local player, with underlying equity ties to Shell and Vitol.

• Supply source: Singapore
• Market structure: Galana-led
• Pricing impact: negative for MOPS

Mauritius

HSFO now increasingly sourced from Singapore, while LSFO is drawn from Europe due to cost constraints in Singapore.

This reflects a clear bifurcation in supply sourcing.

• HSFO source: Singapore
• LSFO source: Europe
• Market shift: structural sourcing change

PetroChina (Jieyang vs Jinzhou)

Jieyang has shifted from heavy sour toward heavy sweet from May onwards.

Dar cargoes previously processed in Jinzhou are now moving south, closer to LSFO demand centres.

This reduces reliance on Singapore-based Brazilian flows.

Estimated 845kt heavy sweet input contributing ~350kt of 0.5% output locally.

• Refining shift: sour → sweet
• Geographic shift: North → South China
• Output: increased 0.5% supply locally

Red Sea

Red Sea power stations are now drawing from Singapore for the first time since pre-Ukraine.

Russian supply alone cannot cover the shortfall from Aramco.

This increases competition for Singapore HSFO across Indian Ocean buyers.

• Supply gap: Aramco shortfall
• Singapore re-entry: first since pre-Ukraine
• Pricing impact: tighter basin competition

South Africa

A continued reshaping of ownership and positioning in South Africa.

Adnoc is leading the race for Shell’s downstream assets.

Vitol and Glencore have already established positions through prior acquisitions.

The strategic value of a South African footprint is clearly increasing.

• Ownership shift: ongoing consolidation
• Key players: Adnoc, Vitol, Glencore
• Strategic value: rising importance of location