A quiet reshaping of Europe’s refining map — driven less by margins, and more by opportunity.
Lukoil has accepted an offer from Gunvor to acquire 100% of Lukoil International GmbH, the holding entity for its foreign downstream assets — a deal valued between USD 10–12 billion.
Pending OFAC approval, Gunvor would take control of refineries in Bulgaria, Romania, and part of Rotterdam, as well as absorb Lukoil’s 75% stake in the West Qurna 2 oil field in Iraq.
That portfolio alone would make Gunvor one of Europe’s most significant independent refiners — but there’s a deeper symmetry here. Gunvor’s origins have Russian roots, and it’s hard not to see how that heritage might have helped them emerge as an acceptable custodian for assets being divested under sanction pressure.
The connection isn’t new. On 19 March 2014, co-founder Gennady Timchenko sold his 43.5% stake to Swedish partner Torbjörn Törnqvist, one day before the U.S. imposed sanctions on him for Russia’s annexation of Crimea. That timely exit gave Gunvor a clean regulatory slate that now appears to be paying dividends.
Gunvor’s purchase could just be the opening move. Acquiring BP’s Gelsenkirchen refinery at Wilhelmshaven would be a logical next step — creating a strong northern European footprint and complementing their Rotterdam interests.
Glencore, meanwhile, is already supplying Prax’s Immingham refinery, a signal that it may be positioning for eventual ownership. Vitol and Trafigura are already ahead of the curve:
The result is a quiet realignment of European refining under the stewardship of the trading majors — Gunvor, Glencore, Vitol, Trafigura, and Prax — what could be called the “Big Five.”
European refining margins remain thin and volatile, but ownership isn’t just about throughput. Refineries with adjacent storage and logistical flexibility have become strategic assets for blending, hedging, and arbitrage. In a market increasingly shaped by sanctions, carbon pricing, and feedstock restrictions, control of the physical node is becoming as valuable as the refinery itself.
The big traders know this — and they’re buying accordingly.
What looks like opportunistic buying is, in reality, the start of a structural reordering. As integrated oil majors retreat and sanction-distressed assets come to market, trading houses are stepping into the vacuum — blurring the line between trader, refiner, and logistics operator.
Margins may come and go, but control of the system — from storage to distillate flow — is the ultimate play.
